The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Propels Villa's Surprising Title Charge
Just eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while his coach scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, the question was whether his performances were an indicator or the source for the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response was much more joyous. As Rogers curled home his second to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their opening six matches, now sit just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, while the victories have stacked up.
Per the data, in only two games has the side had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team that have put together ten consecutive victories, they appear strangely fragile – however at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on their star man to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened in London, and once more versus United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more shots and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario where, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.